February 13th, 2007

Politics

Election 2007

We hear that Kevin Rudd and Labor are ahead in the polls, but is that enough to win government? Remember, Kym Beazley won more than 50% of the vote in 2001 and still lost the election.

Labor needs 16 seats to win. Where can it find them? What are the marginal electorates?

New South Wales: Greenway, MacQuarie, Lindsay and Eden-Monaro. However, a redistribution has apparently left them all less marginal.
Victoria: Labor is well ahead here but there are no winnable seats in sight
Western Australia: Hasluck and Stirling. But there are also two Labor seats held by the thinnest of margins.
Queensland: Bonner, Hinkler, and Moreton,
South Australia: Kingston, Makin and Wakefield,
Tasmania: Braddon and Bass, which Latham lost with his logging gaffe.
Northern Territory: Solomon

That makes only 15.

Rudd could also be hoping to win four less marginal seats in his home state of Queensland: Bowman, Herbert, Longman and Petrie.
But this would require a greater swing than he has.

Bottom line: Labor needs a higher margin than the current polls indicate in order to win.