Labor needs 16 seats to win. Where can it find them? What are the marginal electorates?
New South Wales: Greenway, MacQuarie, Lindsay and Eden-Monaro. However, a redistribution has apparently left them all less marginal.
Victoria: Labor is well ahead here but there are no winnable seats in sight
Western Australia: Hasluck and Stirling. But there are also two Labor seats held by the thinnest of margins.
Queensland: Bonner, Hinkler, and Moreton,
South Australia: Kingston, Makin and Wakefield,
Tasmania: Braddon and Bass, which Latham lost with his logging gaffe.
Northern Territory: Solomon
That makes only 15.
Rudd could also be hoping to win four less marginal seats in his home state of Queensland: Bowman, Herbert, Longman and Petrie.
But this would require a greater swing than he has.
Bottom line: Labor needs a higher margin than the current polls indicate in order to win.