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Election 2007

We hear that Kevin Rudd and Labor are ahead in the polls, but is that enough to win government? Remember, Kym Beazley won more than 50% of the vote in 2001 and still lost the election.

Labor needs 16 seats to win. Where can it find them? What are the marginal electorates?

New South Wales: Greenway, MacQuarie, Lindsay and Eden-Monaro. However, a redistribution has apparently left them all less marginal.
Victoria: Labor is well ahead here but there are no winnable seats in sight
Western Australia: Hasluck and Stirling. But there are also two Labor seats held by the thinnest of margins.
Queensland: Bonner, Hinkler, and Moreton,
South Australia: Kingston, Makin and Wakefield,
Tasmania: Braddon and Bass, which Latham lost with his logging gaffe.
Northern Territory: Solomon

That makes only 15.

Rudd could also be hoping to win four less marginal seats in his home state of Queensland: Bowman, Herbert, Longman and Petrie.
But this would require a greater swing than he has.

Bottom line: Labor needs a higher margin than the current polls indicate in order to win.

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Comments

( 1 comment — Leave a comment )
kerravonsen
12th Feb, 2007 23:59 (UTC)
If Labor doesn't win, I will scream. Or maybe play "Vote the Bastards Out" on a continuous loop.
( 1 comment — Leave a comment )